时代周刊：中国遭遇极度深寒
亚洲版封面 [size=5]China's Perfect Storm[/size]Thursday, Jan. 31, 2008 By SIMON ELEGANT/BEIJING
[attach]14969[/attach]
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[color=RoyalBlue]Homecoming havoc:[/color][/b][color=RoyalBlue]With snow still falling, travelers queue up for tickets at a railwaystation in the city of Hefei hoping to get home for Chinese New Year[/color]
[color=RoyalBlue]Jianan Yu / Reuters[/color]
Bedraggled and wet, Gao Biao stands in front of the Guangzhou trainstation with an umbrella in his hand and stares glumly at the crush ofpeople in front of him. For the past year the 27-year-old has workedfor a cosmetics factory in this southern Chinese city, and now he'strying to get home to see his mother near Suzhou in eastern China, 20hours away by rail. He's going to miss his connection. Around himhundreds of people, all hoping to find seats, push toward an opening inthe metal fence surrounding the station as a police officer shouts intoa megaphone, calling for order. The hands of the giant neon greenstation clock tick closer to Gao's 9:56 p.m. departure time, but theline is as frozen as the temperature. "There's nothing I can do," hesays. "I don't think I'll be getting on that train."
Gao is one of more than half a million travelers who were stuck outsidethe station in the closing days of January after some of the mostsevere weather in decades brought China to a virtual standstill.Unusually frigid weather and heavy snowfall severed crucial transportarteries including major rail lines, highways and airports; poweroutages rolled across 17 provinces, forcing factories and businesses toclose. The southern part of the country, which hadn't seen snow likethis since 1954, was woefully unprepared. Even more northerly citiessuch as Shanghai, which is near the coast, were staggered by winter'swallop. At least 49 deaths were blamed on the storms.
The weird weather hit at a particularly bad time. Every year, in whatis often called the world's largest annual migration, an estimated 180million mainlanders go on holiday or travel home to be with theirfamilies to celebrate the Spring Festival, also known as Chinese NewYear. Millions of these travelers are migrant workers — the real dynamodriving China's economic boom — who leave behind their jobs infactories and construction sites across the country for one of the fewvacations many are allowed to take. But this year is different. Badweather is making travel impossible; millions have been stranded ontheir journeys home, and with meteorologists predicting more snow inthe days ahead for the country's already reeling central and southernregions, the crisis only looks set to worsen.
In a country depicted these days as an economic superpower, the stormswere a reminder that for all its gleaming new airports and 2.1 millionmiles (3.4 million km) of highways, China remains a developing nationwith vulnerable, overtaxed infrastructure. Officials said the snowcaused more than 100,000 buildings to collapse. Some 6,000 vehiclescarrying 20,000 passengers were stranded on a highway linking theprovinces of Anhui and Zhejiang. A rail line that serves as the mainlink between Guangzhou in the south and the capital Beijing in thenorth was disabled when heavy snow and ice in Hunan province knockedout power lines, leaving at least 136 trains idled, according toXinhua, China's official news agency. In neighboring Hubei province,some 100,000 people were without drinking water for several days. Inrural Guizhou province, an electrical tower collapsed under the weightof the snow, cutting off power for 41 cities and counties. The supplyof coal to dozens of regional power plants was disrupted, resulting inelectricity outages throughout the country.
[b]A Shock to the Economy[/b]
Almost 500,000 troops were deployed to help restore transportationlinks and clean up the devastation, the largest military deployment fora natural disaster since devastating floods almost a decade ago. Butthe economic damage is already done. The Chinese government estimatedstorm-related losses at about $3 billion. Economists say this figure isbound to rise. "I'd guess in the end [the crisis] will shave a coupletenths of a percentage point off China's GDP growth this year," saysBen Simpfendorfer, a China economist with the Royal Bank of Scotland inHong Kong. That's not much considering that the country's GDP growthrate was 11.4% last year. But the situation may have been made worsebecause factories were forced to close and shipments disrupted just asthe country's industrial base typically cranks up production to make upfor the one- or two-week breaks many manufacturers take for the NewYear holiday.
Exporters will get off relatively lightly, because most are located inwarmer coastal provinces near ports, says Stephen Green, senioreconomist at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai. Hardest hit will beproducers that rely heavily on electricity such as aluminum and steelmakers. But few companies will escape unscathed. Million Freight, alogistics company based in the normally balmy southern city ofShenzhen, was forced to stop taking new shipments on Jan. 28 becauseexisting freight was stacking up. "Nearly all trains coming in andleaving from Shenzhen are delayed by seven or eight hours," says anexecutive at the company surnamed Feng. The company also owns more than200 trucks but the snow "affects our highway transportation more thanit does railways," Feng says. "We used to ship two 40-foot containersdaily, but given the weather conditions, we stopped our truck trafficcompletely on the 25th." Although it's hard to give an exact number forthe losses the company faces, they "will no doubt be substantial," Fengsighs.
[b]The Inflation Factor[/b]
Storm-related economic problems are likely to be temporary, but theyare still worrisome because the nation is already facing thepossibility of reduced growth if the U.S. slumps into a recession. InChina, "risks to growth also inevitably mean risks to [social]stability," says Patrick Horgan, China managing director forWashington, D.C.-based consultants APCO Worldwide. "On a big scale likethis, it's no longer just about the weather but about the ability ofthe government to govern." And if you had to pick one area of theeconomy that scares the authorities in China the most it would have tobe inflation, which hits citizens where it hurts most — in the wallet.The country's consumer price index hit an 11-year high of 6.5% inOctober due largely to rising food and fuel costs. The storms willalmost certainly cause another spike. Frigid temperatures across 14provinces in China are destroying vegetable crops and will "push upfood prices further in January and February," says Jun Ma, chief Chinaeconomist at Deutsche Bank in Hong Kong. The consequences could beserious, says Simpfendorfer of the Royal Bank of Scotland. "Even if[inflation] creeps up to 7.5%, that grabs the headlines and will affectexpectations."
There have been no reports of protests, but consumers are testy. OnJan. 29, Zhang Liying, a 36-year-old mother of one, shuffled into thesupermarket near her apartment outside Shanghai, knocked snow off ofher boots and started shopping for dinner. Bundled up against bittertemperatures, she had ridden her scooter to the store and was "frozennow," she said. But when Zhang got to the vegetable section, you couldpractically see the steam coming from her ears. Half a kilo of greensnow cost 1.09 renminbi (about 15�). "Before the snow, a week ago, itwas only 0.59 renminbi!" she said. "How can that be?"
The government has imposed price controls on some goods to keepinflation in check, but such policies may be making matters worse. Forexample, Beijing imposed price controls on utilities in early 2006,stabilizing electricity rates. But at the same time the price of coal,used to generate some 80% of the country's electricity, was left to beset by market forces. With coal prices rising, some power companiescurtailed purchases because their profit margins were being squeezedand they were unable to compensate by hiking rates. With reducedstockpiles, the utilities were unable to generate enough electricitywhen the cold snap hit and power demand soared — and transportdisruptions made it difficult or impossible to replenish supplies.Official media say plants that produce 10% of China's power are nowreduced to less than three days of coal reserves. To cope with theproblem, authorities have banned exports of coal mined in China anddiverted shipments bound for factories to power plants. A more lastingsolution — allowing utilities to pass on at least part of the pricerises to consumers in order to reduce demand — simply isn't an optionnow because of the political sensitivity of inflation.
[b]Damage Control[/b]
Government officials — perhaps mindful of the criticism that was heapedon U.S. President George W. Bush's Administration after it was slow toreact to the 2005 Hurricane Katrina disaster — are keenly aware of theimportance of managing China's big freeze. "This government has madecompetence a cornerstone of their administration even more than theirpredecessors," says Horgan, the APCO consultant. So the statepropaganda machine has been working flat out to show how officials aretrying to ease the crisis. The main China Central Television channelregularly airs a special program called "Battling the Blizzard." Anoften repeated news clip shows Premier Wen Jiabao picking up a bullhornand apologizing to a crowd of disgruntled travelers trapped in thetrain station in Changsha, the icy capital of Hunan province. (Even thePremier was inconvenienced by the weather: his plane couldn't land inChangsha and was forced to divert to Wuhan, 180 miles away. Wen arrivedin the capital by train.) "I'm very sorry that you are stranded and notable to go home earlier," Wen told the throng. "We are doing our bestto fix things so that you will all be home."
With tens of millions still on the road and forecasts predicting morebad weather, Wen may have committed the political sin of overpromising.But one political sin can often be expunged by another: deflecting theblame. A news clip airing on state television features an interviewwith a young migrant worker who insists loudly — and to the beamingapproval of the collected cadres — that the crisis is "a naturaldisaster, not caused by administrative or leadership problems." Trueenough, but in a country where the public is constantly reminded of theomnipotence of the central government, some citizens may not be easilyconvinced that China's top leaders are not somehow responsible for theweather, too.
— with reporting by Bill Powell/Shanghai and Austin Ramzy/Guangzhoun 时代周刊图组：
[size=4]Photos：China's Deep Freeze[/size]
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[b]tranded[/b]
Thousands of passengers wait in the rain outside the railway station inGuangzhou, in the southern province of Guangdong, after blizzards andice storms disrupted train service across much of southern and easternChina.
[size=2]进退两难
几十万名乘客守候在广州火车站广场，大雪和冰灾中断了通向北方的多条铁路动脉。[/size]
[[i] 本帖最后由 城阙九重门 于 2008-2-3 04:55 编辑 [/i]] [attach]14971[/attach]
[b]Waiting in Line[/b]
Hopeful passengers wait in a snow-covered yard in Wuhan, in China'scentral Hubei province. China expects more than 2.3 billion trips bycommuters criss-crossing the country for family reunions and holidaysover the Chinese New Year holiday season, a voyage now jeopardized bythe weather.
[size=2]排队等候
中国武汉，满怀希望的乘客在汉口火车站广场等候。
为了过年与家人团圆，春节期间，这个国家在将产生23亿的乘客。[/size] [attach]14972[/attach]
[b]Rain Delay[/b]
Passengers wait for their trains amid the rain at the square ofGuangzhou Railway Station. Over 500,000 passengers were stuck inGuangzhou in the transport havoc caused by heavy snow to the north.
[size=2]下雨的麻烦
在广州火车站广场，超过50万旅客被滞留。北方的雪灾导致了广州的压力剧增。[/size] [attach]14973[/attach]
[b]Rush Hour[/b]
In Hefei, Anhui province, passengers line up to buy rail tickets.Forecasters have warned of more brutal weather across eastern andcentral areas in coming days.
[size=2]高峰时期
安徽合肥火车站，乘客们排队购买火车票。车站广播声称，中国东部和中部将会有更加恶劣的天气。[/size] [attach]14974[/attach]
[b]Keeping Order[/b]
Paramilitary police control a crush of people trying to buy railtickets in Nanjing after long-distance bus services are cancelled dueto snowfall.
[size=2]维持秩序
南京火车站，因为大雪，长途汽车被取消。一名乘客试图购买火车票，军警正在奋力维持秩序。[/size] [attach]14975[/attach]
[b]Rising Tempers[/b]
A fight breaks out among passengers trying to get on a delayed train inGuangzhou. Hundreds of police and soldiers were called out to controlswelling crowds at the station.
[size=2]着急上火
广州火车站。为了赶上延误的火车，两名乘客厮打起来。数百名警察和士兵奉命控制着火车站的局势。[/size] [attach]14976[/attach]
[b]Giving It a Rest[/b]
Chinese passengers sleep on benches at the Wuhan railway station. Theweather closed airports, highways and train lines across central andeastern China, stranding tens of thousands of travellers andthreatening to block food supplies.
[size=2]休息一会儿吧！
武汉长途汽车站，一名男乘客在长椅上休息。恶劣的天气导致机场、高速公路关闭。横穿中国的几条铁路动脉也全部阻塞，成千上万名旅途上的乘客饥寒交迫。[/size] [attach]14977[/attach]
[b]Falling Snow[/b]
In Anhui province, the roof of a farmers' market weighed down by heavysnow collapsed Saturday, trapping eight people for several hours.
[size=2]降雪
安徽省。周六，一家农贸市场的屋顶因不堪大雪重负而倒塌，8人被困其中。[/size] [attach]14978[/attach]
[b]Time for Snow Tires?[/b]
Workers in Wuhan clear snow from a car showroom, after the roofcollapsed, damaging several new cars. The China MeteorologicalAdministration early Monday issued a red alert for severe snowstormsforecast for central and eastern China.
[size=2]因雪受累
武汉。在一个停车场，环卫工人正在打扫积雪。屋顶被压塌后，损毁了几辆新车。周一，中国气象局发布了天气预警，在中国中东部，未来将会有几场大雪降临。[/size] [attach]14979[/attach]
[b]Danger Zone[/b]
Bystanders walk around the damaged pavilion of a PetroChina gas stationin Wuhan. Two people were injured when the station's roof suddenlycollapsed due to heavy snow, local media reported.
[size=2]危险！
武汉的一座加油站被压塌。两名观望者在周围。当地媒体报道，因为事发突然，两人受伤。[/size] [attach]14980[/attach]
[b]Road Closed[/b]
Truckers stand by their vehicles in Shaoguan, Guangdong province, afterauthorities restricted access to the highways for safety reasons,leaving thousands of motorists stranded.
[size=2]道路封闭
广东韶关，一名司机在自己的卡车旁。因为安全的原因，高速公路被关闭，数千名司机被困在路上。[/size] [attach]14981[/attach]
[b]No Parking[/b]
A minibus is trapped on an ice-covered road in Chenzhou, Hunanprovince. The worst snowfalls in up to 50 years brought traffic to astandstill in China's eastern and central provinces, strandingthousands of vehicles on icy highways.
[size=2]禁止停车
湖南郴州。一辆小巴因为结冰的路面而被困。50年未遇的恶劣天气几乎冻僵了东南部的几个省份，也将高速公路上的汽车困在路上。[/size] [attach]14982[/attach]
[b]River of Ice[/b]
Ice drifts pile up on the banks of the Yellow River in ShandongProvince. Authorities attempted to clear the ice, which covered up to450 sq km of the river, before it could do damage to any of thefloating bridges that cross it.
[size=2]结冰的河面
黄河山东段。政府试图清理河面，结冰的河面达450平方公里，因为这些冰很有可能破坏河面上的浮桥。[/size] [attach]14983[/attach]
[b]A Chilly Swim[/b]
A winter swimmer towels off beside a stranded ship on the banks of theYangtze River in Hubei province. As the Yangtze froze, its height fellto its lowest seasonal level since records began in 1866, affectingshipping, fisheries and water supply.
[size=2]冬泳
湖北，长江边上。一名冬泳爱好者在擦洗身体。自1866年有记录以来，长江水面达到了历史最低点，影响了航运、渔猎和淡水供应。[/size] [attach]14984[/attach]
[b]Dangerous Job[/b]
A worker clears snow from a busy highway in Hami, in northwesternChina's Xinjiang province. Some places in the capital of Urumqireported a maximum snowfall of 20 cm in late December-early January.
[size=2]危险的工作
新疆哈密。一名工人在清理繁忙的高速公路。据乌鲁木齐的报道，一月底二月初，新疆一些地方会有20厘米的降雪。[/size] [attach]14985[/attach]
[b]Footprints in the Snow[/b]
Passengers walk around snowdrifts at the Hefei railway station, Anhuiprovince. Dozens of people have died and many highways, railways andairports have been paralyzed in central, eastern and southern China —areas used to milder winters.
[size=2]雪地里的脚印
安徽合肥火车站。许多人因这次雪灾而死亡。使得众多机场、高速公路瘫痪。前几年，中国一直是暖冬。[/size] [attach]14986[/attach]
[b]Keeping Warm[/b]
A Chinese woman bundles up against the cold in Lanzhou, in northwestGansu province. With meteorologists warning of more snowstorms to come,local governments braced for further pressure on already severelystrained transport, power and communications.
[size=2]取暖
中国兰州。一名老人裹面取暖。气象学家警告，将会有更大的暴风雪，因为通讯中断、交通受阻，当地政府承受着巨大的压力。[/size] At least 49 deaths were blamed on the storms.
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这个……国内怎么没见报道？ 看似很恐怖啊
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